A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
